Wisdom of Crowds; Tales of the Data Tails
The “Wisdom of Crowds” is powerful. It helps us understand what is likely. However, extremely unlikely data tails of a distribution are more difficult.
“Humans are not very good at probabilistic thinking. Kahneman and Tversky formulated Prospect Theory to explain how our intuition breaks down. Simply stated, humans are better at pattern recognition than probability distributions.”
A wide range of biases limits human understanding of rare events. Can crowd wisdom help explain rare events? Our work shows this is both possible and practical. This paper describes means to better understand rare events using models and estimates from groups; crowdsourcing distributions, not just specific forecasts. A brief survey of prior work and some original Lone Star research is presented.
Read the whitepaper in full at https://www.lone-star.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Wisdom-of-Crowds-Tales-of-the-Tail.pdf
- Lone Star Analysis Maintains Top Spot on Inc. 5000 List for Third Consecutive Year
- Lone Star Analysis Survey Reveals Significant Disparities in Digital Data and Privacy Concerns Across US, UK, and EU
- How Americans are Leading the Charge for Data Privacy in the Age of AI
- A Few Things You Should Know about Harry Markowitz
- Lone Star Analysis President and COO Matthew Bowers Named Finalist for EY Entrepreneur Of The Year® 2023