Wisdom of Crowds; Tales of the Tail

The “Wisdom of Crowds” is powerful. It helps us understand what is likely. However, extremely unlikely data tails of a distribution are more difficult.

” Humans are not very good at probabilistic thinking. Kahneman and Tversky formulated Prospect Theory to explain how our intuition breaks down. Simply stated, humans are better at pattern recognition than probability distributions. “

A wide range of biases limit human understanding of rare events. Can crowd wisdom help explain rare events? Our work shows this is both possible and practical. This paper describes means to better understand rare events using models and estimates from groups; crowdsourcing distributions, not just specific forecasts. A brief survey of prior work, and some original Lone Star research is presented.

Read the whitepaper in full at https://www.lone-star.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/09/Wisdom-of-Crowds-Tales-of-the-Tail.pdf

 

View Whitepaper

About Lone Star Analysis

Lone Star Analysis enables customers to make insightful decisions faster than their competitors.  We are a predictive guide bridging the gap between data and action.  Prescient insights support confident decisions for customers in Oil & Gas, Transportation & Logistics, Industrial Products & Services, Aerospace & Defense, and the Public Sector.

Lone Star delivers fast time to value supporting customers planning and on-going management needs.  Utilizing our TruNavigator® software platform, Lone Star brings proven modeling tools and analysis that improve customers top line, by winning more business, and improve the bottom line, by quickly enabling operational efficiency, cost reduction, and performance improvement. Our trusted AnalyticsOSSM software solutions support our customers’ real-time predictive analytics needs when continuous operational performance optimization, cost minimization, safety improvement, and risk reduction are important.

Headquartered in Dallas, Texas, Lone Star is found on the web at http://www.Lone-Star.com

Humans are not very good at probabilistic thinking. Kahneman and Tversky formulated ProspectTheory to explain how our intuition breaks down. Simply stated, humans are better at pattern recognition than probability distributions.