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Black Swans: Frequent Once-in-a-Lifetime Crises

Black Swans: Frequent Once-in-a-Lifetime Crises Randal Allen, John Volpi Lone Star Analysis Addison, TX rallen@lone-star.com, jvolpi@lone-star.com ABSTRACT Nassim Taleb (Taleb 2010) labels black swans with the following attributes: rarity, impact, and retrospective apparent predictability. However, Benoit Mandlebrot (Wright 2007) claims gray swans are events of…

Black Swans: Frequent Once-in-a-Lifetime Crises

Interservice/Industry Training, Simulation, and Education Conference (I/ITSEC) 2016 2016 Paper No. 16083 Frequent Once-in-a-Lifetime Crises Randal Allen, John Volpi Lone Star Analysis Addison, TX rallen@lone-star.com, jvolpi@lone-star.com ABSTRACT Nassim Taleb (Taleb 2010) labels black swans with the following attributes: rarity, impact, and retrospective apparent predictability. However,…